Printable View
Klepto I understand your math. You are doing a permutation because order matters
each one has to be successful.
But that is only 1 of 4 possible scenarios.
You have 4 scenarios when you have 4 stars and try to upgrade to 7
1. fail at 5
2. succeed at 5 fail at 6
3.succeed at 5 and 6 fail at 7
4. Succeed at 5,6 and 7.
Im no math professor, you may be 100% correct. I may be way off.
And tbh it dont matter at 2% or 19% its still way low and unlikely.
All that matters is the single path to success. The other scenarios don't matter. If you fail at any point you're back to "square one", so you have to start over. The only scenario that prevents you from starting over is when you get 7 stars, which has a 2.88% likelihood of occurring.Quote:
Originally Posted by mattp169
Also, if the chance to succeed was really 19% (or even 9%), we'd have a lot more people running around with 7 star heroes, because the chance to succeed wouldn't be unusual. However, as everyone here is attesting, success is rather unusual past 4 stars, and the numbers I've calculated most definitely back up that observation.
I'm glad to see that others are trying to theorycraft, though. :) Nice to not be doing all of this completely alone.
After looking at this thread, I pinked a player in a different guild in our realm that has cianna with 9 stars and 2 moons. She said that she had Cianna to 13 stars and had failed all the way back to 9 trying to upgrade her before. Said she was at 30% chance of success right now. So I do think those numbers may be correct. What I am wondering though is if there are no more "Fail Safes" Past level 9 where you start using Purple Medals. If this is the case, then odds get a bit more compunded, as your fail safe in effect is 9 and you are facing 6 more successes with no fail safe.Quote:
Originally Posted by Klepto
yeah so pretty much evony age 2 gear stars all over again. Maybe they just used the same code
If that's the case we're good then Matt. Had that down to an art ;) The difference here is the cost of Purple Medals, and the fact that they do not drop randomly from arena chests or labyrinth card flips. This can be a good and bad thing in my opinion, as it kind of regulates stars for coiners and non coiners alike. It's going to take some serious saving of daily gems to get enough Purple medals to star ANY of the heroes one time, much less to 15 stars. This is more than likely going to be something that is achieved by coiners only. The catch is the fail rates getting to 9 stars. That's what regulates it, as we've seen more than one coiner post in this thread that they've had insanely bad luck getting even to 7. I've been able to get adamanti to 8 stars fairly easy myself, but have had trouble with other heroesthe other heroes. I haven't gotten ANY other hero past 5 stars at all so far, and my Shayd gave me an insanely hard time even getting to the first fail safe at 4 in the first place.Quote:
Originally Posted by mattp169
But unlike evony age 2, the star system here is PER HERO instead of an overall gear buff. Overall getting 15 stars is ofc the hardest, but technically fail rates going from 8 to 9 and 5 moons to 6 moons is the same. I would love to hear some kind of conformation as to whether there are any fail safes past 9 or not. That is going to make alot of difference in calculating odds for Moon upgrades.
Purple stars do drop from arena I got 2 that way
Good to know ty.Quote:
Originally Posted by mattp169
I still say make sainting fails remove previous saintings.
Maybe then the coiners who have way too much disposable income would get it.
If it fails, it's no big deal. That's life.
Failure removing a previously attained level is NOT life.
ANALOGY TIME:
You are a driver in a big race.
You come in 2nd place.
The penalty for coming in second is that the next time you race you must remove the left front tire and race on the rim.
If the rim gives out you can't replace it. That's a pretty big hit to the performance of the car. In fact, it would make your
chance of winning the race rather slim indeed.
People have complained that they failed at 100% chance of success. That's just plain wrongheaded thinking when coding.
My choice at the tavern is totally immaterial. It's not luck if the score is known before the game is played
Would you watch a live game from whatever sport if you were told what the score would be before it started? I wouldn't.
Drop a quarter in a slot machine if you knew you would lose? I wouldn't.
3 cards roll up. I get 1 of the useless slots. Yeah, I got spirits. It's NOT the same.
And don't get me started on how few purple and gold cards are showing up.
I'm NOT the only one who has noticed that too.
REMOVE THE FAILURE PENALTY.
Don't penalize us for that unless you will penalize all failures in a similar fashion.
Failed to kill a realm boss? You lose a rune slot.
Lost an arena battle? Take away all your stakes for a day.
Got sunk? No more maps for a week.
Unfortunately they WON'T remove the star penalty because far too many people coin for stars.
Unless and until people stop buying stars they have no incentive to replace the star stealing code.
I for one will not buy any more gems because of this. I WON'T encourage anyone to buy gems.
And I certainly won't tell anyone about the game.
Yeah, I know, people will pay anyway.
But I won't.
Gorgon
Removing the failure penalty in stars will make getting 15 stars way too easy.Quote:
Originally Posted by jweb_4_8938282
15 stars is not meant for everyone, only for the very elite or insanely lucky.
Suck up your pride and focus on something else in the game.
Fixed that for you. "Elite" implies skill, but neither cash spent nor time invested nor player skill applies with gaining stars. It's all 100% luck. You could play Tynon for 3 years and spend $10,000 yet potentially never see 7 stars on any hero.Quote:
Originally Posted by Herby