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Is there something I should know about getting heroes from the ROyal Challenge? I have attacked Herja 11 times, won 11 times, and never got her. It's supposed to be 20% chance of recruiting, so I should have got her twice by now according to stats...
It is just a matter of luck as far as I know.
yes and it goes even further down but i seen people get queen B (6%chance) get in 1 tryQuote:
Originally Posted by ChickenWing
herja took me 8 wins to get
According to stats, the expected number of recruits in 11 victories would be 2.2. But according to stats, expected values almost always differ from the values obtained in physical experiments. So many people here don't know simple logic and hence are frustrated with drop chances and such... Here are some questions to test your statistical intellect.
1) A fair coin is flipped 99 times and gets heads. What is the probability of flipping a tails on the 100th try?
2) What is the expected value of a roll on a fair 6-sided die? What is the probability of rolling the expected value?
In case you didn't get the point.... there is nothing wrong with the recruit probability. There is something wrong with your thinking, though.
Yes, menu confuse probability and probability, I agree. BUT it would be very niece of anyone to think that the probability of drop rates is not changed as time progresses. On current performance I feel it is not likely that the information fields are updated, not sure if this is deliberate, incompetence or just laziness though. Having said that, I doubt the drop rates in the royal challenge have been changed yet.
I suppose it depends on if one believes in 'diminishing probability'Quote:
Originally Posted by jkwongfl_7919855
do you really believe you still have 50% chance on the 100th flip?
Diminishing probability states that nothing can go on forever. The more something repeats itself the less likely it is to continue. By all accounts you would be unlikely to flip even 20 times the same in a row of a coin
In have Queen B but have not been able to get King H
What most of you guys are forgetting is that the randomness in the game is technically pseudo-random and you generally cannot tell pseudo-random from truly random results. You cannot generate true randomness with a computer and pseudo-random results are obtained by plugged some sort of "seed" into a formula. The seed is usually determined by time or some other constantly changing number that the game keeps track of. So concepts such as diminishing probability do not always work all that well with computer generated randomness.
Looking at the set of all flips, the probability of having 99 consecutive heads followed by a tails would be very unlikely, but looking at the single flip by itself the probability of flipping a tails would just be 1/2. It's a matter of viewpoint, you could say; looking at the big picture differs from focusing on specific events. The in-game probabilities operate on a single-event probability; that is, each attempt has its own chances. The game is not engineered so that after 100 tries you'll have 20 recruits. We players tend to think in terms of consecutive-events, taking into account previous failings and expecting a likelier favorable outcome in the future. Tynon doesn't do that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Harpoon
We can both agree, though, that there is nothing wrong with the recruit chances. It's just that some people are "unfortunate" in their endeavors.
Thanks for letting me know I'm stupid, jkwong. I understand statistics. However, I was wondering if I wasn't aware of something. I understand that I could do this 1000 times and never get Herja, but it is very unlikely. It is very unlikely, though possible, that 11 attempts fail. A very unlikely probability hinted that I may not have been aware of something, such as having to recruit all preceeding heroes before getting to the next one, which is why I asked.Quote:
Originally Posted by jkwongfl_7919855