Combining Cards or no?

i am trying to find out or hear about your preferences what to do about the option to be able to combine cards. i see so many dominions and greater now, it almost seems unnatural. here is what happened to me: i took a cheap a half angel 3 (500 spirits to redeem) and tried 22% chance to HA4 and failed. fair enough, so i combine 3 cards to a 60'ish% rate and fail again. got greedy, i say to myself and combine 4 cards to a 96% chance and fail again! then i redeem 3 more cards coz a little over 1500 spirits left.
first card +1 at 22%
second card fail
third card +1 at 20%
i failed saint 4 with a leader card four times in a row (3x100 gems added and failed the 4th time without gems added.)
and then failed saint 5 three times in a row!

all luck you may say and i agree. however, what are the odds to fail a 96% chance? they are a lot lower than failing a 60%'ish chance very slim and even slimmer than succeeding 2 out of 3 cards at 22% and 20%. or how about failing 70% 4 times in a row!?!

so i start to wonder if some heroes from some players are more likely to go up or others are more likely to fail. if the "% chance to fail" is not another illusion. i wonder if it's not predetermined like guild chests, tavern, and all other shuffle chances.

They can all fail unless you are 100%...

I can tell you that the fail rates do change as you stack cards.

WHat I do is simple. I check out if my chances of getting ONE saint improve by doing them one by one or pilling them up.

Suppose you have 2 cards and the chance is 50%.

Doing them one by one:
- You have 22.5% chance of getting 2 saints (0.50x0.45)
- You have 75% chance of getting at least 1 saint (you can draw a tree with "yes" and "no" to find that out, QMs are too far for me to remember the formula for that).

If you combine them, chance of getting 1 saint is 92%.

I would choose to combine them because I am more likely to get 1 saint and the chance of getting 2 saints is pretty low.

Try doing this exercise to find out what the best probabilities are.

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Originally Posted by ChickenWing

WHat I do is simple. I check out if my chances of getting ONE saint improve by doing them one by one or pilling them up.

Suppose you have 2 cards and the chance is 50%.

Doing them one by one:
- You have 22.5% chance of getting 2 saints (0.50x0.45)
- You have 75% chance of getting at least 1 saint (you can draw a tree with "yes" and "no" to find that out, QMs are too far for me to remember the formula for that).

If you combine them, chance of getting 1 saint is 92%.

I would choose to combine them because I am more likely to get 1 saint and the chance of getting 2 saints is pretty low.

Try doing this exercise to find out what the best probabilities are.

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I don't trust the percentages they give at all.

But theoretically, you shouldn't disregard the probability of getting 2 or more saints (it should be 25% for getting 2 in your example?). Taking them into account, you should just add up the individual probabilities (on average, you get 1 saint for 2 cards in your example). Pretty sure theoretically, you shouldn't ever combine the cards if you want maximum saints.

That being said...I don't trust the percentages they give at all. I like to combine because otherwise I will be failing 50 times at 10% again.

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Originally Posted by g346007_1906957

But theoretically, you shouldn't disregard the probability of getting 2 or more saints (it should be 25% for getting 2 in your example?).

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No, because the next percentage level after 50% is 45%, therefore you multiply 50% by 45%. If you are willing to take that risk, go ahead. I favor secure investments on my part. I have found that whenever I take risky decisions with Tynon, it doesn't pay.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by g346007_1906957

Taking them into account, you should just add up the individual probabilities (on average, you get 1 saint for 2 cards in your example).

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Nope. Two 50% cards doesn't make 100%.

Attachment 798

See that image? That's the probabilities that can happen at 50%. 3 of them give a saint, 1 doesn't. 75% :)

so how does your probabilities work out with the FACT that i combined 3 cards to 60'ish % chance and 4 cards to 96% chance and FAILED BOTH?
after you explained that, you can try to explain that on top of that it gave me +2 out of 3 cards at 22 and 20% chances.
all that only lets me draw one conclusion and that is the "success rate percentage" is just a fake and it's either predetermined or a 50-50 shot

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ChickenWing

No, because the next percentage level after 50% is 45%, therefore you multiply 50% by 45%. If you are willing to take that risk, go ahead. I favor secure investments on my part. I have found that whenever I take risky decisions with Tynon, it doesn't pay.



Nope. Two 50% cards doesn't make 100%.

Attachment 798

See that image? That's the probabilities that can happen at 50%. 3 of them give a saint, 1 doesn't. 75% :)

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don't really understand your image. Where does it show 3 of them give a saint?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by class662_4733823

i am trying to find out or hear about your preferences what to do about the option to be able to combine cards. i see so many dominions and greater now, it almost seems unnatural. here is what happened to me: i took a cheap a half angel 3 (500 spirits to redeem) and tried 22% chance to HA4 and failed. fair enough, so i combine 3 cards to a 60'ish% rate and fail again. got greedy, i say to myself and combine 4 cards to a 96% chance and fail again! then i redeem 3 more cards coz a little over 1500 spirits left.
first card +1 at 22%
second card fail
third card +1 at 20%
i failed saint 4 with a leader card four times in a row (3x100 gems added and failed the 4th time without gems added.)
and then failed saint 5 three times in a row!

all luck you may say and i agree. however, what are the odds to fail a 96% chance? they are a lot lower than failing a 60%'ish chance very slim and even slimmer than succeeding 2 out of 3 cards at 22% and 20%. or how about failing 70% 4 times in a row!?!

so i start to wonder if some heroes from some players are more likely to go up or others are more likely to fail. if the "% chance to fail" is not another illusion. i wonder if it's not predetermined like guild chests, tavern, and all other shuffle chances.

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Bad luck to fail at 96%, but dont waste cards anymore, just combine them as close to 100% now, better to combine 2-3 cards to saint at 100% than to waste 2-3 cards singlely hoping for a saint at 50%, gl.

a guilide of mine went to saint one of his heroes using several cards to get to 100% and it still failed. is this because he was going after a high level saint? ie archangel 5 for example.

If this is correct, then at what level is 100% not actually 100%?

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Originally Posted by trahevony_4745091

a guilide of mine went to saint one of his heroes using several cards to get to 100% and it still failed. is this because he was going after a high level saint? ie archangel 5 for example.

If this is correct, then at what level is 100% not actually 100%?

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After I believe its Angel 5 I belive you can no longer achieve 100% 100% is only acheivable at lower saint levels. All Arch Angel and Dominion levels do not offer 100% at 5 cards