Nowhere does it say that you have a 20% chance. It's pretty obvious that better cards have a much smaller % chance of being selected. The card you receive seems to be randomly selected but with varying chances. (something like white - 90%, blue - 5%, purple 3%, yellow and gold - small) The shear number of refreshes and chances taken guarantees some wins to trumpet in World Chat and the Banner.
Not sure about the exact percentages, just saying the Tavern works along those lines. NOT A CHEAT BY TYNON. Just chances much tougher than 20%. The cards are placed around the card you selected, That's the reason for the one position move that many of us have noted.
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