The random draw of one card out of five is a 1/5 chance. That is what is represented to the player.Originally Posted by Revan
But the outcome of randomly selecting one of the five available cards is inconsistent with the presentation.
If I want one specific card, then 4/5 I will fail, so I need to draw log(1/20)/log(4/5) =~ 14 cards to be 95% certain to get it.
If I draw 20 times and still don't get it, then there is only a (4/5)20 = 0.0115 = 1% chance that the system is performing as advertised, and a 0.98847 = 98% chance that the system is not a random draw from five cards.
