Hero's Tavern is rigged!!

[smokingfox]

haha i found out how it works the less credits you have the more likely you will be to get a GOOD hero..

WHY? you ask?

simple say the hero costs 3m credits and you have 250k then it will give you the hero.. hoping you go buy that nice 100 gem costing chest..

and since i know this rolling just b4 lady or during lady is your BEST bet @ getting new GOOD heroes..

[MistressBatty]

haha i found out how it works the less credits you have the more likely you will be to get a GOOD hero..

WHY? you ask?

simple say the hero costs 3m credits and you have 250k then it will give you the hero.. hoping you go buy that nice 100 gem costing chest..

and since i know this rolling just b4 lady or during lady is your BEST bet @ getting new GOOD heroes..

And you know this is fact and 100% how? It's your opinion. And just that. Each player's experience with the tavern heroes will be different. I got my 3 purples early on, and had wayyyyy more credits on hand than I needed to recruit them. And for the last 2 weeks or more I have been chasing the gold heroes and not getting a single one, with enough credit or without enough credits. And I am buying them really good expensive drinks! My best luck with getting heroes and hero cards has been righht after rest. But it is a roll of the dice every time, and what works for me is not likely to work for everyone. If what you have found works well for you, then do it and I hope you get good heros out of it. But it may just be pure luck.

*shrugs*

[smokingfox]

well kinda wierd that since i found out and told my guild mates we all get alot more heroes.. and well its worth a try..

i did not program this so no i cant be 100% sure, but if you look @ forum i see loads of people saying i only had 50k credits left then i get a card or hero.. they cant afford.

[harrykleinsmith_7185693]

I have Done Math Statistics all my life and I am getting somewhere between 1-20 to 1-40 depending on the day that is 4 to 8 times worse than the statistical proballity of 4-1, worse is when 3 heros show and I have used 10 gems for another slot and get no hits 4 times. Anther complete statistical Probality. It surely appears rigged. Same as Palace I have never gotten a Calvin card in 30 tries. It is clearly Rigged by the numbers, and everyone I have talked to has similar experiences.

[Morgan le Fay]

Or it could be a load of people who landed on a card and then realised they were short of credits. who felt that because of their misfortune they needed to let the community know.

Today I won two cards and had plenty credits to buy them with (one failed [sigh] and the other gave my Calvin a handy magic attack bonus Grrr...).

[Revan]

Guess you dont understand math to well, 1 in 5 cards makes it 20% chance of hitting it if the game was playing fairly. Which of course its not.

Again where does it say it is actually an equal 20% chance for each card? It doesn't anywhere.

[dj_5382810]

1 in 5 odds are 20 percent.

[Revan]

Perhaps I should rephrase my last statement.

NOWHERE does it say that the cards in the tavern are weighted at 20% each.

[anglewyrm_7239458]

NOWHERE does it say that the cards in the tavern are weighted at 20% each.

The random draw of one card out of five is a 1/5 chance. That is what is represented to the player.
But the outcome of randomly selecting one of the five available cards is inconsistent with the presentation.

If I want one specific card, then 4/5 I will fail, so I need to draw log(1/20)/log(4/5) =~ 14 cards to be 95% certain to get it.

If I draw 20 times and still don't get it, then there is only a (4/5)²⁰ = 0.0115 = 1% chance that the system is performing as advertised, and a 0.98847 = 98% chance that the system is not a random draw from five cards.

[marcel.kincaid_1756132]

the cards are already pre-determined before you even pick one.

True.

It has nothing to do with probability.

False. The predetermination was made by a weighted random process ... that's why not every player gets the same results. But the weighting is entirely probabilistic ... there are predetermined chances of getting various things, but the outcomes aren't predetermined.