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Hopebringer
I had a 90% success rate and it failed for a hero card (Cianna). Got it on the Tavern Tuesday. I got another card (Calvin) and had the same 90% success rate and that one succeeded. So... 90% success is now the new 50% 
My guess is that the success rates have been reduced now that you can get cards for free from the tavern on Tuesdays. Save up gems, my guess is that paying 100 gems will give you the chance for success. Lots of guesses but this game is a lot more about luck and chance than anything else unless and until you break out the credit card. 
But what I really like are that they adjusted the spirits. Now I can get a hero versus having to wait for luck to win it and then pray I have the credits to buy it.
Lots of guesses --- we'll never really know.
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