Thank you for those figures, they probably are actually better odds than reality. I know someone who spent 3k gems to end up down 1 star!!! And i spent 36 medals and wound up less 1 star. If you had more of people's real experiences i think those numbers would indeed be even less. It also seems to slow down the higher level you achieve, so its easier when smaller. Since there is no insurance, fails so high, and costs so much overall.... raising stars, at least for me, has stopped. There are many other places to spend gems that are necessary and yield better results. Frustration level trying to star up is just not worth throwing good money after bad.