True chance of achieving "safe" Star levels

[Klepto]

Thank you for those figures, they probably are actually better odds than reality. I know someone who spent 3k gems to end up down 1 star!!! And i spent 36 medals and wound up less 1 star. If you had more of people's real experiences i think those numbers would indeed be even less. It also seems to slow down the higher level you achieve, so its easier when smaller. Since there is no insurance, fails so high, and costs so much overall.... raising stars, at least for me, has stopped. There are many other places to spend gems that are necessary and yield better results. Frustration level trying to star up is just not worth throwing good money after bad.

Let's run some quick numbers on 3,000 gems. We'll say this was all done on Free Star Friday because doing it any other time would be bonkers (aside if these weekly events hadn't come out yet). I'll assume this was an attempt to go from 4 stars to 7 stars.

3000 gems / 10 gem cost per medal * 2 medals due to refunded medals on Saturday = 600 blue medals

600 blue medals / 3 per gold hero "star" = 200 attempts to increase star levels.

Out of 200 attempts to increase star levels from star level 4, 90 (200 * 0.45) would have succeeded getting to star level 5.

Out of 90 that succeeded in getting star level 5, 28.8 (90 * 0.32) would have succeeded in getting star level 6.

Out of the 28.8 that succeeded in getting star level 6, there's only a 20% chance of success at achieving star level 7. Given that, on average only 5.76 (28.8 * 0.2) or essentially 6 of those attempts were statistically likely to succeed. Your friend probably had a bad run of luck on those 6 attempts, unfortunately, but as you can see even with crazy amounts of medals you're still rather unlikely to succeed except if you get lucky.

Chances are even worse if this was done outside Free Star Friday. 3 attempts out of all 200 would have been likely to achieve star level 7. Failure would have immediately returned your friend to star level 4.


Keep in mind in my original post I showed that there's a 35% chance to achieve star level 4 from star level 1, but my Shayd took around 600 gems worth of Blue Medals to achieve star level 4 initially. Bad runs of luck can REALLY slow you down in star progression.