True chance of achieving "safe" Star levels

[mattp169]

Probabilities are not additive, otherwise Las Vegas would not exist. They are multiplicative, meaning you have to beat the odds successively in order to win if the name of the game is winning 3 times in a row such as going from 4 to 7 stars.

well doesn't this depend on i believe the words are combinations versus permutations.

SO I did was figure out how many total possibly results you could have
SO say put 100 pieces of paper in a bag marked 5 star In that bag 45 says success 55 say fail.
Then repeat in a bag for 6 star with 32 marked success and 68 marked fail
Then repeat again in the 7 star bag with 20 marked success and 80 marked fail.

Now i did multiply to calculate how many different way each of the following results could be achieved

succeed at 5 fail at 6 (45*68=3060)
succeed at 5 and 6 fail at 7 (45*32*80=115200)
Succeed from 4 to 7 (45*32*20=28800)
and of course fail at 5 (55)

then added the total number of outcomes of the 4 possible out comes for a total of 147115 possible outcomes

[Klepto]

well doesn't this depend on i believe the words are combinations versus permutations.

SO I did was figure out how many total possibly results you could have
SO say put 100 pieces of paper in a bag marked 5 star In that bag 45 says success 55 say fail.
Then repeat in a bag for 6 star with 32 marked success and 68 marked fail
Then repeat again in the 7 star bag with 20 marked success and 80 marked fail.

This method would creates 147115 possible out comes out of which only 28800 give you a 7 star hero

Out of 100 attempts:

You first have 45 chances to succeed, 55 to fail.
Of the 45 that succeed, 32 percent of those (14.4) will succeed, 68 percent will fail (30.6).
Of the 14.4 that succeed, 20 percent of those (2.88) will succeed, 80 percent will fail (11.52).


Whether you try 100 times or 100,000 times, the chances remain the same. Because you return to 4 stars every time if you fail at any point, my math is correct here. Each "attempt" starts at 4 stars and ends with either failure (return to 4 stars) or full success at 7 stars. There is only 2.88% chance to get to 7 stars. That's why it's so rare to see 7 stars broadcast in world chat, because anything under 5% chance is considered a statistical outlier.

[VillainX]

Out of 100 attempts:

You first have 45 chances to succeed, 55 to fail.
Of the 45 that succeed, 32 percent of those (14.4) will succeed, 68 percent will fail (30.6).
Of the 14.4 that succeed, 20 percent of those (2.88) will succeed, 80 percent will fail (11.52).


Whether you try 100 times or 100,000 times, the chances remain the same. Because you return to 4 stars every time if you fail at any point, my math is correct here. Each "attempt" starts at 4 stars and ends with either failure (return to 4 stars) or full success at 7 stars. There is only 2.88% chance to get to 7 stars. That's why it's so rare to see 7 stars broadcast in world chat, because anything under 5% chance is considered a statistical outlier.

To further add to that klepto, im not sure if it was 12% or 11% going from 7 to 8. I believe it was 12% but not positive. I do know that it is 10% going from 8 to 9. Is 9 stars the next safe spot?

***EDIT*** I withdraw my post as I failed to look at the initial stats in original post. Sorry

[Klepto]

to further add to that klepto, im not sure if it was 12% or 11% going from 7 to 8. I do know that it is 10% going from 8 to 9. Is 9 stars the next safe spot or is it 10?

I'm only at 8 stars maximum myself right now, but I believe 9 stars is the next safe spot as I've seen it broadcast in World chat before (some lucky punk has 2 moons on 2 separate heroes right now).

I remember 7 to 8 being 14% and 8 to 9 is 10%, so 1.4% actual chance of success from 7 to 9 stars. No idea how rough it gets after that, but it can't be easy.

[VillainX]

I'm worried about the gem cost of medals past that point. It seems to me Purple medals would be required after 9 stars. If the fail rate is not dramatically increased in using the purple medals to star, it will become VERY costly to go any higher than 9. I have yet to see a purple medal drop anywhere in game, only seen them in fair and lab for sale at rather high cost.

[Klepto]

I'm worried about the gem cost of medals past that point. It seems to me Purple medals would be required after 9 stars. If the fail rate is not dramatically increased in using the purple medals to star, it will become VERY costly to go any higher than 9. I have yet to see a purple medal drop anywhere in game, only seen them in fair and lab for sale at rather high cost.

I don't know how accurate this is, but this thread seems to have some data on success rates past 9 stars: http://bbs.tynon.com/showthread.php?2130-10-Stars

Granted, this was earlier in beta so things might have changed, but it looks like it costs three Purple Medals for Gold level heroes (ouch, so 100+ gems per attempt at minimum), and 50% chance starting out. Kind of harsh.

[Karmageddon]

Well in the latest posts everyone is talking about going from 4-7 stars. What happens if you cannot even get to 4 stars to begin with? That is where i am at. How is that explained?

[Klepto]

Well in the latest posts everyone is talking about going from 4-7 stars. What happens if you cannot even get to 4 stars to begin with? That is where i am at. How is that explained?

Easily. There's a 35.48% chance of success in getting to 4 stars. There's conversely a 64.52% chance to fail. Because the chance to fail is greater than the chance of success, it's not surprising that some players are having an incredibly difficult time even reaching 4 stars on some of their heroes. I had trouble with my Shayd, for sure. She took a lot of effort to get 4 stars, and it was very frustrating. However, perseverance paid off.

[Karmageddon]

You talk about a problem with only one hero what about ALL heroes?? You don't know the word frustrating if you only had a problem with one hero..... js

[Deucalion]

You talk about a problem with only one hero what about ALL heroes?? You don't know the word frustrating if you only had a problem with one hero..... js

Your not the only one with issues dude. I have ONE hero above 6 stars, and I don't even use her. All my usable heroes are no higher than 6 stars and it costed a bunch to get them there. It took time and patience as well. Each one of those heroes I have tried to get to 7 and each one fails each time going back down to 4. Every single time. Not once have gotten lucky with stars past 6. If I hadn't been willing to pump cash into them at a few points, they wouldn't be much above 4.
The fact that lower level players have higher heroes than you simply means they had better luck, period. It stinks, insanely, but you'll get there eventually if you don't give up.