Quote Originally Posted by mattp169 View Post
Klepto I understand your math. You are doing a permutation because order matters
each one has to be successful.

But that is only 1 of 4 possible scenarios.
All that matters is the single path to success. The other scenarios don't matter. If you fail at any point you're back to "square one", so you have to start over. The only scenario that prevents you from starting over is when you get 7 stars, which has a 2.88% likelihood of occurring.

Also, if the chance to succeed was really 19% (or even 9%), we'd have a lot more people running around with 7 star heroes, because the chance to succeed wouldn't be unusual. However, as everyone here is attesting, success is rather unusual past 4 stars, and the numbers I've calculated most definitely back up that observation.

I'm glad to see that others are trying to theorycraft, though. Nice to not be doing all of this completely alone.