After looking at this thread, I pinked a player in a different guild in our realm that has cianna with 9 stars and 2 moons. She said that she had Cianna to 13 stars and had failed all the way back to 9 trying to upgrade her before. Said she was at 30% chance of success right now. So I do think those numbers may be correct. What I am wondering though is if there are no more "Fail Safes" Past level 9 where you start using Purple Medals. If this is the case, then odds get a bit more compunded, as your fail safe in effect is 9 and you are facing 6 more successes with no fail safe.




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