True chance of achieving "safe" Star levels

[Klepto]

Just ran some quick calculations for these. Would like to expand on this if/when possible to include chances above 9 stars:

Chance to increase from 1 star to 4 stars: .88 * .72 * .56 * 100 = 35.48%
Chance to increase from 4 stars to 7 stars: .45 * .32 * .2 * 100 = 2.88%
Chance to increase from 7 stars to 9 stars: .14 * .10 * 100 = 1.4%

As you can see, achieving 5 stars or so is fairly trivial, but actually succeeding at achieving 7 stars or higher is incredibly difficult and involves tremendous luck given that your chance to succeed at consecutive rolls drastically decreases once you've achieved the 4 star mark.

The really sad part here is that since getting 4 stars is pretty much easy unless your luck is terrible, getting 7 stars seems initially like it wouldn't be that much harder but your true chances are actually very slim.

With average luck, you will theoretically have to try 34-35 times from 4 stars to succeed at getting one hero to 7 stars. This means with average luck you will need well over 100 blue medals for each hero you achieve 7 stars with. 250-300+ blue medals is very likely.

Even if you obtain half of those medals for free from Labyrinth and Guild Chests, 100 blue medals at an "average" cost of 4 gems apiece is still 400 gems or $35-$40.

That's the true cost of a 7 star hero, on average. Whether you get the gems from daily Count/King's Bounty or buy them, or get them in the Arena/Labyrinth, you will spend $35-$40 of gems on average (or more) to get a 7 star hero. Even this is a lowball estimate on cost. Use your money (and gems) wisely, and treat stars and blue medals as a perk, not as a goal.

[Deucalion]

Interesting. Well, this answers many peoples questions. I have stopped starring for the time being. With everything else going on, It may be a while before I do again. But, great info. Thank you.

[Swanky]

Yeah, no more stars for me

[MisChief]

Thank you for those figures, they probably are actually better odds than reality. I know someone who spent 3k gems to end up down 1 star!!! And i spent 36 medals and wound up less 1 star. If you had more of people's real experiences i think those numbers would indeed be even less. It also seems to slow down the higher level you achieve, so its easier when smaller. Since there is no insurance, fails so high, and costs so much overall.... raising stars, at least for me, has stopped. There are many other places to spend gems that are necessary and yield better results. Frustration level trying to star up is just not worth throwing good money after bad.

[Klepto]

Thank you for those figures, they probably are actually better odds than reality. I know someone who spent 3k gems to end up down 1 star!!! And i spent 36 medals and wound up less 1 star. If you had more of people's real experiences i think those numbers would indeed be even less. It also seems to slow down the higher level you achieve, so its easier when smaller. Since there is no insurance, fails so high, and costs so much overall.... raising stars, at least for me, has stopped. There are many other places to spend gems that are necessary and yield better results. Frustration level trying to star up is just not worth throwing good money after bad.

Let's run some quick numbers on 3,000 gems. We'll say this was all done on Free Star Friday because doing it any other time would be bonkers (aside if these weekly events hadn't come out yet). I'll assume this was an attempt to go from 4 stars to 7 stars.

3000 gems / 10 gem cost per medal * 2 medals due to refunded medals on Saturday = 600 blue medals

600 blue medals / 3 per gold hero "star" = 200 attempts to increase star levels.

Out of 200 attempts to increase star levels from star level 4, 90 (200 * 0.45) would have succeeded getting to star level 5.

Out of 90 that succeeded in getting star level 5, 28.8 (90 * 0.32) would have succeeded in getting star level 6.

Out of the 28.8 that succeeded in getting star level 6, there's only a 20% chance of success at achieving star level 7. Given that, on average only 5.76 (28.8 * 0.2) or essentially 6 of those attempts were statistically likely to succeed. Your friend probably had a bad run of luck on those 6 attempts, unfortunately, but as you can see even with crazy amounts of medals you're still rather unlikely to succeed except if you get lucky.

Chances are even worse if this was done outside Free Star Friday. 3 attempts out of all 200 would have been likely to achieve star level 7. Failure would have immediately returned your friend to star level 4.


Keep in mind in my original post I showed that there's a 35% chance to achieve star level 4 from star level 1, but my Shayd took around 600 gems worth of Blue Medals to achieve star level 4 initially. Bad runs of luck can REALLY slow you down in star progression.

[Karmageddon]

Well I am going to say that my luck with upgrading stars on heroes is very low. Every time I try to upgrade any of my heroes past 3 stars I lose all my stars and end up back at 1 star. Granted usually I only have enough stars to attempt 2 chances, but that does not matter.
The problem I have is that I CANNOT get any of my heroes past 3 stars. It is getting really irritating since I work so hard for each one of the stars I get. I do not pay for anything in this game because I cannot spare the money. That should not matter on my chances of upgrading my heroes though.

So my question is where are the REAL stats on this stupid chances of upgrading. Or is there some secret to getting 4 stars on your hero?

[Revan]

Well I am going to say that my luck with upgrading stars on heroes is very low. Every time I try to upgrade any of my heroes past 3 stars I lose all my stars and end up back at 1 star. Granted usually I only have enough stars to attempt 2 chances, but that does not matter.
The problem I have is that I CANNOT get any of my heroes past 3 stars. It is getting really irritating since I work so hard for each one of the stars I get. I do not pay for anything in this game because I cannot spare the money. That should not matter on my chances of upgrading my heroes though.

So my question is where are the REAL stats on this stupid chances of upgrading. Or is there some secret to getting 4 stars on your hero?

Yeah, the luck on it is kinda annoying. Took me a month and a half (maybe 2 months)to get 4 stars on rhize but adamanti not only got there in less than a week but somehow has gone to 7 stars without failing. Kinda big contrast but whatever.

[jweb_2_1320862]

Failure should not go backwards. The chance % should stay the same.
People pay real cash for upgrades that then disappear. Isn't that theft?
If someone hacked my account and changed the personal info that would be theft. Wouldn't it?
So isn't the loss of upgrade levels through the use of the game code the same thing?

Yes, I know, we know the game says failure takes a star.
Other than to force people to buy gems and use them to buy stars is there any rational reason for this?
In my opinion, that doesn't count as rational either.
People rage quitting because of it is hardly profitable.
If someone complained about the gambling nature of the rewards system, couldn't that potentially get the game shut down?
After all, in the lab, it says certain items are rewards. While achieving a certain point level gains you some of them, it doesn't gain you all of them.
You have to choose the right spot to gain the "rewards"
That isn't a reward. It's not even close to being a reward.
And then there's the tavern.
We don't actually make the choice. The game does. The outcome is pre-determined.
If it was truly as close to random as possible the cards would appear all over the board instead of moving 1 place left or right.
It's ALWAYS just 1 space left or right. Or the same spot. And the same spot almost always occurs when you choose left or right.

The point of the rant is that the stars are just as likely to use the same "no where close to random code" that the tavern, palace and lab use.
As I said in a previous post, since they take achieved levels away with failed stars, they should do the same with sainting.
OR, they could remove the penalty for failure from the stars.

Happy players tell others about a game and that helps GROW the player base and the income of the game.
Unhappy players tell people to stay away because the developers are crooks.
Right now I'm not telling anyone else to play the game.

Gorgon/various _Arrows

[Karmageddon]

OK so I was able to amass 3 more stars since my last post. With my hero at 1 star and 88% chance at success. I got another SCREW you from the game. It gets really frustrating when players on my server with less power and levels are walking around with 7 stars on heroes.

I really think the Devs need to look at the point of not losing what stars you already have on the hero when the upgrade fails. Yes I would say what they are doing with that is basically stealing people's money. That is one BIG reason why I will not pay any money for this game.

[Revan]

The star system is more like gambling than theft. They tell us there is a risk that we will fail and will lose stars, so players SHOULD know what they are getting into. If you don't want to deal with the risk don't bother with the star system.