True chance of achieving "safe" Star levels

[Klepto]

Well to keep on track with the thread....

It really should be exactly the same chance all the way across the board for upgrading stars. Don't say it is because it is not. When you have lower level and power characters have MORE stars on a hero then you it is NOT exactly the same chance across the board for everyone. And don't give me no BS about LUCK... there is NO luck in this game it is all predetermined by the server itself. The Tynon Devs really need to get their percentages right for everyone on the chances of upgrading using stars and not just say " you have 88% chance to upgrade" because you DON'T!!!!!!!

Perfect example is this morning when I had 3 stars to try and recoup the lost star upgrades from yesterday. It says 88% chance so it should upgrade without a problem. But, no it gave me the big Tynon SCREW YOU and did not. So where is it all determined who gets upgraded and who doesn't???

It's called luck, and it's not BS. Just because there's an 88% chance of success on each attempt doesn't mean you will succeed for sure nearly 9 out of 10 times. You could still be really unlucky and hit that 12% chance of failure 100 times in a row. Statistically this is unlikely, but it certainly is possible. Take your licks and keep on trying, should you choose to do so. The numbers I have calculated in the original post of this thread just spell out the overall likelihood of your success, but aren't a guarantee. It took me around 50 medals to get my Shayd to star level 4 initially, possibly more, which is WAY worse than the 35% success rate I calculated. In the end, it's all about luck and perseverance. The more you try, the more likely you are to succeed, even with abysmally low rates of success like stars 7 to 9.

[Karmageddon]

It is BS..... Like I have stated multiple times. When a player at a lower level and power than I am can have 7 stars on a hero it is TOTAL BS. It shows me that the game does not treat everyone the same across the board. If it was the same across the board for everyone then the lower level player would be having the same problem I am having with upgrading stars.

If you tell me that it is the same across the board for all players then you are totally wrong.....

[xxdannisouthxx_7889427]

oh dude, how about you keep your ideas to yourself? i am very happy with my account. THIS IS A THREAD ABOUT STARS. so how about you keep it on stars. we are talking about STARS. i mentioned my FAILING OF STARS. never did i get off from the thread, yet, here you are, trying to be all smart and clever and getting completely away from the subject of the thread.

Not sure how Herby's post is off subject. Given the difficulty of leveling up stars, it's pointless to keep doing the same thing again and again, then get frustrated when achieving the same results.

Herby's post is related by offering ways around beating the star gambling odds. It's mathematically a very poor investment. The end goal is power, and stars just raise base stats as one option to do so.

[Deucalion]

It is BS..... Like I have stated multiple times. When a player at a lower level and power than I am can have 7 stars on a hero it is TOTAL BS. It shows me that the game does not treat everyone the same across the board. If it was the same across the board for everyone then the lower level player would be having the same problem I am having with upgrading stars.

If you tell me that it is the same across the board for all players then you are totally wrong.....

Same across the board would not be fun, and would not be worth the time of most of the players here. Why would you want to play a game where everyone has the same crap, across the board... Everyone in this game starts on level ground. Where you go from there is up to you. Pay or Don't pay. It's been proven that both methods produce great results. Money just gets you there slightly faster. Stars are meant to be hard, very hard. I don't like losing stars, granted, but if it was easy then everyone would have 15 stars and what would be the point?

[Karmageddon]

I guess you all don't see the bottom line of my issue with star upgrades..... PLAYERS WITH LOWER LEVEL AND LOWER POWER THAN I HAVE, HAVE 7 STARS ON THEIR HEROES!!!!! I CANNOT GET ANY OF MY HEROES PAST 3 STAR UPGRADE!!!!!

Now tell me it is all about luck. If it is then I am the most UNLUCKY person playing this game.

[Greenly]

I guess you all don't see the bottom line of my issue with star upgrades..... PLAYERS WITH LOWER LEVEL AND LOWER POWER THAN I HAVE, HAVE 7 STARS ON THEIR HEROES!!!!! I CANNOT GET ANY OF MY HEROES PAST 3 STAR UPGRADE!!!!!

Now tell me it is all about luck. If it is then I am the most UNLUCKY person playing this game.

i think you might just be the unluckiest person. but then, there are a ton of lower level players with more stars than me too, so yeah, nothing we can do other than complain, haha

[Revan]

I've got 4 million power but have better stars than the #1 on the server on the server who was 22 million power its all luck.

[Klepto]

I guess you all don't see the bottom line of my issue with star upgrades..... PLAYERS WITH LOWER LEVEL AND LOWER POWER THAN I HAVE, HAVE 7 STARS ON THEIR HEROES!!!!! I CANNOT GET ANY OF MY HEROES PAST 3 STAR UPGRADE!!!!!

Now tell me it is all about luck. If it is then I am the most UNLUCKY person playing this game.

It is all about luck. You're probably just a statistical outlier. The whole point of luck is that some people get the crappy end of the stick. You just happen to be one of those when it comes to stars. Suck it up and be patient. We all have bad streaks that eventually go away if we're patient enough.

[mattp169]

I did my math a little differently and got slightly different numbers for 4-7 stars

You must get 3 successes in a row

SO from 4 to 5 you have 55 ways to fail with a 45% success rate
you have 45 ways to succeed from 4 to 5 then 68 ways to fail from 5 to 6. Giving you 45 * 68 or 3060 ways to have this happen
45 ways to go from 4 to 5, 32 ways to succeed from 5 to 6 and 80 ways to fail from 6 to 7 so that gives you 115200 possibilities
45 ways to go form 4 to 5, 32 ways to go from 5 to 6, and 20 ways to go from 6 to 7 for another 28800 possibilities

This gives us a total of 147115 possible out comes
28800 give you a 7 star hero
28800/147115 =19.576% chance of success to get a 7 star hero

Now that is assuming you go from 4-7 with out a fail you have 19.576% chance of success.

[Klepto]

I did my math a little differently and got slightly different numbers for 4-7 stars

You must get 3 successes in a row

SO from 4 to 5 you have 55 ways to fail with a 45% success rate
you have 45 ways to succeed from 4 to 5 then 68 ways to fail from 5 to 6. Giving you 45 * 68 or 3060 ways to have this happen
45 ways to go from 4 to 5, 32 ways to succeed from 5 to 6 and 80 ways to fail from 6 to 7 so that gives you 115200 possibilities
45 ways to go form 4 to 5, 32 ways to go from 5 to 6, and 20 ways to go from 6 to 7 for another 28800 possibilities

This gives us a total of 147115 possible out comes
28800 give you a 7 star hero
28800/147115 =19.576% chance of success to get a 7 star hero

Now that is assuming you go from 4-7 with out a fail you have 19.576% chance of success.

Probabilities are not additive, otherwise Las Vegas would not exist. They are multiplicative, meaning you have to beat the odds successively in order to win if the name of the game is winning 3 times in a row such as going from 4 to 7 stars.