Is there something I should know about getting heroes from the ROyal Challenge? I have attacked Herja 11 times, won 11 times, and never got her. It's supposed to be 20% chance of recruiting, so I should have got her twice by now according to stats...
It is just a matter of luck as far as I know.
yes and it goes even further down but i seen people get queen B (6%chance) get in 1 tryOriginally Posted by ChickenWing
herja took me 8 wins to get
According to stats, the expected number of recruits in 11 victories would be 2.2. But according to stats, expected values almost always differ from the values obtained in physical experiments. So many people here don't know simple logic and hence are frustrated with drop chances and such... Here are some questions to test your statistical intellect.
1) A fair coin is flipped 99 times and gets heads. What is the probability of flipping a tails on the 100th try?
2) What is the expected value of a roll on a fair 6-sided die? What is the probability of rolling the expected value?
In case you didn't get the point.... there is nothing wrong with the recruit probability. There is something wrong with your thinking, though.
I suppose it depends on if one believes in 'diminishing probability'
do you really believe you still have 50% chance on the 100th flip?
Diminishing probability states that nothing can go on forever. The more something repeats itself the less likely it is to continue. By all accounts you would be unlikely to flip even 20 times the same in a row of a coin
Looking at the set of all flips, the probability of having 99 consecutive heads followed by a tails would be very unlikely, but looking at the single flip by itself the probability of flipping a tails would just be 1/2. It's a matter of viewpoint, you could say; looking at the big picture differs from focusing on specific events. The in-game probabilities operate on a single-event probability; that is, each attempt has its own chances. The game is not engineered so that after 100 tries you'll have 20 recruits. We players tend to think in terms of consecutive-events, taking into account previous failings and expecting a likelier favorable outcome in the future. Tynon doesn't do that.
We can both agree, though, that there is nothing wrong with the recruit chances. It's just that some people are "unfortunate" in their endeavors.
The concept of diminishing probability still applies in this situation, even if you look at it like a single-event. the odds of failing to recruit herja, for example, are 4/5. so you have an 80% chance of failing to recruit her each attempt. Attempt twice in a row the odds for each attempt are the same single-event odds, 4/5 and 4/5. but your overall odds of failing both times are 16/25 or 64%. Attempt a third time 4/5, 4/5, and 4/5 odds each time, but overall odds are 64/125 or 52%. For each single-event there is a set probability of recruitment, however, there are also the odds of achieving the same result over and over again. The more often you achieve the same result under the same conditions, the less likely it is for that same result to occur again. This is why there is such an unlikely probability you would flip heads 99 times in a row (roughly 1 in 633,825,300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000). So the odds of the OP not recruiting herja in 11 attempts would be: 4,194,304/48,828,125 or 8.5%. And it continues to decrease from there. The fact is that Tynon continually proves that results must be pre-determined because they fail to comply with the odds they project far to often, and they are too consistently achieving outlier statistical results.
Last edited by DrthCaedus; 12-30-2013 at 06:55 AM. Reason: misplaced comma :(
Thanks for letting me know I'm stupid, jkwong. I understand statistics. However, I was wondering if I wasn't aware of something. I understand that I could do this 1000 times and never get Herja, but it is very unlikely. It is very unlikely, though possible, that 11 attempts fail. A very unlikely probability hinted that I may not have been aware of something, such as having to recruit all preceeding heroes before getting to the next one, which is why I asked.
Lol I wasn't letting you know you were stupid, I was just trying to get some others to see the point. I actually think you are more logical than most other Tynoners. And although there are undoubtedly some flaws in the game, I am very sure that the recruit chances are not rigged nor are there any special prerequisites as you suggested.
And PS, I go by jkwongfl Or Twy.
Yes, menu confuse probability and probability, I agree. BUT it would be very niece of anyone to think that the probability of drop rates is not changed as time progresses. On current performance I feel it is not likely that the information fields are updated, not sure if this is deliberate, incompetence or just laziness though. Having said that, I doubt the drop rates in the royal challenge have been changed yet.
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