Quote Originally Posted by jkwongfl_7919855 View Post
According to stats, the expected number of recruits in 11 victories would be 2.2. But according to stats, expected values almost always differ from the values obtained in physical experiments. So many people here don't know simple logic and hence are frustrated with drop chances and such... Here are some questions to test your statistical intellect.
1) A fair coin is flipped 99 times and gets heads. What is the probability of flipping a tails on the 100th try?
2) What is the expected value of a roll on a fair 6-sided die? What is the probability of rolling the expected value?
In case you didn't get the point.... there is nothing wrong with the recruit probability. There is something wrong with your thinking, though.
I suppose it depends on if one believes in 'diminishing probability'
do you really believe you still have 50% chance on the 100th flip?

Diminishing probability states that nothing can go on forever. The more something repeats itself the less likely it is to continue. By all accounts you would be unlikely to flip even 20 times the same in a row of a coin