Quote Originally Posted by Harpoon View Post
I suppose it depends on if one believes in 'diminishing probability'
do you really believe you still have 50% chance on the 100th flip?

Diminishing probability states that nothing can go on forever. The more something repeats itself the less likely it is to continue. By all accounts you would be unlikely to flip even 20 times the same in a row of a coin
Looking at the set of all flips, the probability of having 99 consecutive heads followed by a tails would be very unlikely, but looking at the single flip by itself the probability of flipping a tails would just be 1/2. It's a matter of viewpoint, you could say; looking at the big picture differs from focusing on specific events. The in-game probabilities operate on a single-event probability; that is, each attempt has its own chances. The game is not engineered so that after 100 tries you'll have 20 recruits. We players tend to think in terms of consecutive-events, taking into account previous failings and expecting a likelier favorable outcome in the future. Tynon doesn't do that.

We can both agree, though, that there is nothing wrong with the recruit chances. It's just that some people are "unfortunate" in their endeavors.