Quote Originally Posted by jkwongfl_7919855 View Post
According to stats, the expected number of recruits in 11 victories would be 2.2. But according to stats, expected values almost always differ from the values obtained in physical experiments. So many people here don't know simple logic and hence are frustrated with drop chances and such... Here are some questions to test your statistical intellect.
1) A fair coin is flipped 99 times and gets heads. What is the probability of flipping a tails on the 100th try?
2) What is the expected value of a roll on a fair 6-sided die? What is the probability of rolling the expected value?
In case you didn't get the point.... there is nothing wrong with the recruit probability. There is something wrong with your thinking, though.
Thanks for letting me know I'm stupid, jkwong. I understand statistics. However, I was wondering if I wasn't aware of something. I understand that I could do this 1000 times and never get Herja, but it is very unlikely. It is very unlikely, though possible, that 11 attempts fail. A very unlikely probability hinted that I may not have been aware of something, such as having to recruit all preceeding heroes before getting to the next one, which is why I asked.