I averaged a frag for every 1.5M coins last Friday. I spent 60M coins and got 40 fragments.
Then Saturday, I spent 60M coins and got 2 fragments.
Averages out to be about 3M per fragment.
Its just that you have predetermined, "lucky," streaks and predetermined, "unlucky," streaks. If you are only spending 20-30M coin at a time, you won't get reliable statistics. But the more you spend, the more closer your data will resemble the true mean. This is convergence to the mean, which only applies with a large enough sample size.
Just like how you have some heroes that take 1000 stars to get to 7, and other heroes that take 30. But overall, it averages out to the true statistical mean.



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