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Thread: Guide: Betting in Championship Warfare

  1. #31
    Ironheart WickeD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChickenWing View Post
    My guide assumes that you bet on the winner. No one bets thinking they are betting on the loser (hopefully), which is why it isn't included. I could certainly add a small comment on this when I make corrections during the next CW. I believe my numbers aren't right regarding the second multipliers, which is how your bet is affected by others' bets.
    i am sorry if i distract you, i was just replying to Andy's post and the next one of your's. I still am trying to completely go through your original post.

  2. #32
    Lightbringer ChickenWing's Avatar
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    I am currently completely revamping this post to make it clearer and to include the right numbers. I would like people's help to gather some statistics.

    When you get knocked out from the competition, I will need the following information from your bets as viewers (which means when the knockout rounds start for most):

    • How many tickets did you get?
    • Did you win your bet?
    • How many gems did you spend?
    • How many people bet on the loser?
    • How many people bet on the winner?


    I will need both winning bets and losing bets. I will analyse the winning bets first to single out a variable related to a bet's popularity. Then, I will analyse the losing bets to single out a variable related to the result.

    Hopefully I won't get too confused.

    If 5-10 people send me 4-5 answers each, I will have enough data to work with. Thanks in advance!
    Last edited by ChickenWing; 02-26-2014 at 08:10 AM.

  3. #33
    Lightbringer ChickenWing's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaBooMan View Post
    I got 8400 tickets off a 10 gem bet with pussyriot and execdude in last semis
    Your bet was multiplied by a bit less than 5 (since 900*2*4.66=8400). When dealing with a bet's popularity, the maximum is probably 5, and the minimum 0.20.

    I think you could have gotten 4200 tickets if you had lost your bet, but I'm not sure. This is because even though you would have been affected by a negative result multiplier, the multiplier of almost 5 makes up for it. It doesn,t make sense to me that you would get so much for losing, so I really need people's numbers. Perhaps the multiplier based on the result is lower than 0.5. If it were 0.2, for instance, you would have gotten 1677 tickets, which seems more likely. If it were, 0.1, you would have gotten 838 tickets, which seems even more likely.

    I'm thinking out loud right now.
    Last edited by ChickenWing; 02-26-2014 at 11:51 PM.

  4. #34
    Lightbringer ChickenWing's Avatar
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    This guide has been completely updated. It is now clearer and more accurate!

    On a sidenote, I don't know why it was moved to the Arena & PvP section of the forum. It has nothing to do with those matters.
    Last edited by ChickenWing; 02-27-2014 at 03:23 AM.

  5. #35
    Forum Moderator Andy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChickenWing View Post
    This guide has been completely updated. It is now clearer and more accurate!

    On a sidenote, I don't know why it was moved to the Arena & PvP section of the forum. It has nothing to do with those matters.
    The General discussion are is getting too full so Morgan moved the championship warfare here. In a way it is like PvP, since you are fighting other players. Any discussion of this statement will be deleted because it would be off topic.

  6. #36
    Lightbringer ChickenWing's Avatar
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    First of all, I have found that there is always at least one person betting on the loser when the winner is obvious. This suggests that the system makes the fighting players bet for themselves. However, it does not seem to account for them when calculating the multipliers.

    Popularity multiplier is "1" when bets are split even. I got 400 tickets (basic value was 400) from a good bet when 17 people had bet on each player.

    Popularity multiplier is "0.5" when 100% people bet on the same person as you. I got 200 tickets (basic value was 400) from a good bet when 33 people had bet on the winner and 1 person had bet on the loser.

    Popularity multiplier is "1.65" when 25% of the people bet on the same person as you. I got 826 tickets (basic value was 500) from a good bet when 16 people had bet on the winner and 48 on the loser.

    Result multiplier is "0.1" when you bet on the wrong person. I got 50 tickets (basic value was 300) from a wrong bet when ~25% of the people had bet on the same person as me. 300x1.65=495 .... 495/50= ~10... thus the tickets got divided by 10, or multiplied by 0.1.
    Last edited by ChickenWing; 02-28-2014 at 05:34 AM.

  7. #37
    Lightbringer ChickenWing's Avatar
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    Those numbers are, for the moment, right on track with what I have in this guide. Execdude's post suggests to me that the popularity multiplier really jumps fast in the lower % values, going as high as 5 (or even higher possibly). I would need someone's data from winning a bet and being the sole person betting on the winner.

  8. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by ChickenWing View Post

    Changing Side
    Sometimes, a losing player will get strong enough to beat the ubber player towards the final rounds. This is because every time a player loses a round, they get a +5% to defensive and offensive stats. These buffs add up so that they become significant when a player repeatedly loses. At some point, that player is likely to be able to win a fight or two. You need to keep an eye on the percentage of HP left at the end of every round to know when the time is right to switch side for your betting.

    Pay attention to how each player performs when they are attacking and when they are defending. Some do better when they are defending (although most do better when they are attacking). This is important in order to find out when you should bet on the "losing" player. If you bet on the unpopular winner, you will get a high popularity multiplier, which means loads of tickets in most cases. This is a good time to spend gems on your bet because your gem multiplier is multiplied by the popularity multiplier, which means you can get impressive amounts of tickets! You need to be aware that this isn't a secure bet. The choice is yours whether you are willing to spend gems and perhaps get no tickets.
    And also, sometimes a player will throw in the towel out of the blue. One of the tactics here is that a player will tell their friends that they are going to throw in the towel in the last second before the minute timeout so that they will bet on the other side. Given that most people would have made their bets on the stronger player already the friends will gain extra tickets when the stronger player throws in the towel.

  9. #39
    Lightbringer ChickenWing's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by IraTheSquire_1457591 View Post
    And also, sometimes a player will throw in the towel out of the blue. One of the tactics here is that a player will tell their friends that they are going to throw in the towel in the last second before the minute timeout so that they will bet on the other side. Given that most people would have made their bets on the stronger player already the friends will gain extra tickets when the stronger player throws in the towel.
    lol we haven't heard Tynon's position on this, have we?

  10. #40
    Lightbringer ChickenWing's Avatar
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    I was looking at data from yesterday's betting and found something interesting:

    The basic value was 400, I was the only one to bet on the loser. I got 20 tickets.

    The result multiplier brings my tickets to 40 (400x0.1=40).
    This means that my tickets were affected by a popularity multiplier of 0.5 (40x0.5=20).

    Thus, the popularity multiplier will not boost your tickets when you bet on the wrong person (which is logical when you think about it). I was affected by the same multiplier as the ones who bet on the winner (they got 200 tickets).

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