Combining Cards or no?

[class662_4733823]

i am trying to find out or hear about your preferences what to do about the option to be able to combine cards. i see so many dominions and greater now, it almost seems unnatural. here is what happened to me: i took a cheap a half angel 3 (500 spirits to redeem) and tried 22% chance to HA4 and failed. fair enough, so i combine 3 cards to a 60'ish% rate and fail again. got greedy, i say to myself and combine 4 cards to a 96% chance and fail again! then i redeem 3 more cards coz a little over 1500 spirits left.
first card +1 at 22%
second card fail
third card +1 at 20%
i failed saint 4 with a leader card four times in a row (3x100 gems added and failed the 4th time without gems added.)
and then failed saint 5 three times in a row!

all luck you may say and i agree. however, what are the odds to fail a 96% chance? they are a lot lower than failing a 60%'ish chance very slim and even slimmer than succeeding 2 out of 3 cards at 22% and 20%. or how about failing 70% 4 times in a row!?!

so i start to wonder if some heroes from some players are more likely to go up or others are more likely to fail. if the "% chance to fail" is not another illusion. i wonder if it's not predetermined like guild chests, tavern, and all other shuffle chances.

[Riot]

They can all fail unless you are 100%...

I can tell you that the fail rates do change as you stack cards.

[ChickenWing]

WHat I do is simple. I check out if my chances of getting ONE saint improve by doing them one by one or pilling them up.

Suppose you have 2 cards and the chance is 50%.

Doing them one by one:
- You have 22.5% chance of getting 2 saints (0.50x0.45)
- You have 75% chance of getting at least 1 saint (you can draw a tree with "yes" and "no" to find that out, QMs are too far for me to remember the formula for that).

If you combine them, chance of getting 1 saint is 92%.

I would choose to combine them because I am more likely to get 1 saint and the chance of getting 2 saints is pretty low.

Try doing this exercise to find out what the best probabilities are.

[g346007_1906957]

WHat I do is simple. I check out if my chances of getting ONE saint improve by doing them one by one or pilling them up.

Suppose you have 2 cards and the chance is 50%.

Doing them one by one:
- You have 22.5% chance of getting 2 saints (0.50x0.45)
- You have 75% chance of getting at least 1 saint (you can draw a tree with "yes" and "no" to find that out, QMs are too far for me to remember the formula for that).

If you combine them, chance of getting 1 saint is 92%.

I would choose to combine them because I am more likely to get 1 saint and the chance of getting 2 saints is pretty low.

Try doing this exercise to find out what the best probabilities are.

I don't trust the percentages they give at all.

But theoretically, you shouldn't disregard the probability of getting 2 or more saints (it should be 25% for getting 2 in your example?). Taking them into account, you should just add up the individual probabilities (on average, you get 1 saint for 2 cards in your example). Pretty sure theoretically, you shouldn't ever combine the cards if you want maximum saints.

That being said...I don't trust the percentages they give at all. I like to combine because otherwise I will be failing 50 times at 10% again.

[ChickenWing]

But theoretically, you shouldn't disregard the probability of getting 2 or more saints (it should be 25% for getting 2 in your example?).

No, because the next percentage level after 50% is 45%, therefore you multiply 50% by 45%. If you are willing to take that risk, go ahead. I favor secure investments on my part. I have found that whenever I take risky decisions with Tynon, it doesn't pay.

Taking them into account, you should just add up the individual probabilities (on average, you get 1 saint for 2 cards in your example).

Nope. Two 50% cards doesn't make 100%.

tree.png

See that image? That's the probabilities that can happen at 50%. 3 of them give a saint, 1 doesn't. 75%

[koja6049]

No, because the next percentage level after 50% is 45%, therefore you multiply 50% by 45%. If you are willing to take that risk, go ahead. I favor secure investments on my part. I have found that whenever I take risky decisions with Tynon, it doesn't pay.



Nope. Two 50% cards doesn't make 100%.

tree.png

See that image? That's the probabilities that can happen at 50%. 3 of them give a saint, 1 doesn't. 75%

don't really understand your image. Where does it show 3 of them give a saint?

[g346007_1906957]

No, because the next percentage level after 50% is 45%, therefore you multiply 50% by 45%. If you are willing to take that risk, go ahead. I favor secure investments on my part. I have found that whenever I take risky decisions with Tynon, it doesn't pay.



Nope. Two 50% cards doesn't make 100%.

tree.png

See that image? That's the probabilities that can happen at 50%. 3 of them give a saint, 1 doesn't. 75%

You are right I guess... But since the probability of the second saint is lower... the value of the second saint is higher (having two successful saints would be more than two times better than having 1 successful saint).

Maybe looking at it with several cards would help.

[class662_4733823]

so how does your probabilities work out with the FACT that i combined 3 cards to 60'ish % chance and 4 cards to 96% chance and FAILED BOTH?
after you explained that, you can try to explain that on top of that it gave me +2 out of 3 cards at 22 and 20% chances.
all that only lets me draw one conclusion and that is the "success rate percentage" is just a fake and it's either predetermined or a 50-50 shot

[cnn1_7545681]

i am trying to find out or hear about your preferences what to do about the option to be able to combine cards. i see so many dominions and greater now, it almost seems unnatural. here is what happened to me: i took a cheap a half angel 3 (500 spirits to redeem) and tried 22% chance to HA4 and failed. fair enough, so i combine 3 cards to a 60'ish% rate and fail again. got greedy, i say to myself and combine 4 cards to a 96% chance and fail again! then i redeem 3 more cards coz a little over 1500 spirits left.
first card +1 at 22%
second card fail
third card +1 at 20%
i failed saint 4 with a leader card four times in a row (3x100 gems added and failed the 4th time without gems added.)
and then failed saint 5 three times in a row!

all luck you may say and i agree. however, what are the odds to fail a 96% chance? they are a lot lower than failing a 60%'ish chance very slim and even slimmer than succeeding 2 out of 3 cards at 22% and 20%. or how about failing 70% 4 times in a row!?!

so i start to wonder if some heroes from some players are more likely to go up or others are more likely to fail. if the "% chance to fail" is not another illusion. i wonder if it's not predetermined like guild chests, tavern, and all other shuffle chances.

Bad luck to fail at 96%, but dont waste cards anymore, just combine them as close to 100% now, better to combine 2-3 cards to saint at 100% than to waste 2-3 cards singlely hoping for a saint at 50%, gl.

[trahevony_4745091]

a guilide of mine went to saint one of his heroes using several cards to get to 100% and it still failed. is this because he was going after a high level saint? ie archangel 5 for example.

If this is correct, then at what level is 100% not actually 100%?