Mysterious chests are worthless. I got to have fair the first 1 or 2 hours. Mysterious chests are worth from 90-115 gems.
Let's use the example you give, 5mill coins, with 40 gems or less, I can easily get 5 million coins. Not sure about you, but I know I wanna save that 70 gems or so.
Not even when you're starting is worth it. When is REALLY worth is when you have a hero in Tavern(purple/gold) and you have gems but there's no credits in the fair.



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